36
La cuenca del río Conchos:
una mirada desde las ciencias ante el cambio climático
for the RGB border region, by the end of the 21
st
Century under
assumptions of continued high rates of greenhouse gas emissions
(RCP 8.5), with an increase of at least 10°F (5.5°C) on the hottest
days (Walsh
et al.,
2014). By 2050, according to recent projections
for Las Cruces, NM, at least three weeks of daily temperatures
of 100°F (38°C) or higher—historically quite extreme—will occur
each year by 2050, under a greatly reduced emissions scenario
(RCP 4.5) (LeRoy and Garfin, 2017). A warming climate will
exacerbate the public health impacts of extreme heat, as heat
waves become longer, more frequent, and more severe. To address
these concerns, the CDC and NOAA have partnered to develop
the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS).
NIHHIS is an integrated impact-specific climate service system,
that, like the National Integrated Drought Information System
(NIDIS; NIDIS Program Office, 2016), aims to inform climate-
related decisions, through research, communication, partnership
with communities, and early warning. This combination of
activities builds understanding of climate extremes, such as heat
waves, and develops the capacity of communities to prepare for
and respond to climate impacts.
The RGB Region of the southwestern U.S. and northern México
is especially vulnerable to extreme heat. Daily maximum
temperatures in the region can exceed 110°F (43°C), and
minimum temperatures, usually measured just before sunrise,
can sometimes exceed 85°F (29°C). If minimum temperatures
do not cool substantially, then people cannot recover from
the prolonged exposure of high daytime temperatures, which
increases health-related risks. The region shares an international
border, with a high proportion of people living below the median
income of the U.S. national average, and many people living in
unregulated communities, known as “colonias,” some of which
lack potable water and electricity. For these unique reasons, the
CDC and NOAA decided to pilot one of the NIHHIS projects
in the RGB Region, with plans to eventually expand to include
